Latest Covid News-Lunar New Year holiday could exacerbate COVID-19 outbreak in China

Chinese worry for elderly as WHO warns of COVID-19 surge over Lunar New Year.

On Thursday, people in China expressed concerns about the potential spread of COVID-19 to their elderly relatives as they prepared to travel to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year holiday. The World Health Organization has warned that this holiday could exacerbate the current outbreak in China.

The Lunar New Year holiday, which officially begins on January 21st, comes after China abandoned strict anti-virus measures such as mass lockdowns last month. This sudden change led to widespread frustration and even protests.

This shift has now exposed a population of 1.4 billion people, who lack natural immunity to the virus and including many elderly individuals who are not fully vaccinated, to COVID-19.

The outbreak of COVID-19 in China is spreading from large cities to rural areas with limited healthcare resources, causing some hospitals and crematoriums to become overwhelmed. Official data from China is scarce, and the World Health Organization (WHO) has stated that it will be difficult to contain the virus during the Lunar New Year holiday, which is known to be the largest annual migration of people in the world.

Warnings from prominent Chinese health experts for people to avoid visiting elderly relatives during the holiday have become the most-read topic on China’s version of Twitter, Weibo. Many users have expressed agreement with the advice, with some saying they will not visit their grandparents and will instead leave gifts at their doorstep. The sentiment of not wanting to risk the health of loved ones, especially the elderly, during this time is widely shared.

The Lunar New Year period, which began on January 7th and lasts for 40 days, is expected to see over two billion trips across China, according to the transport ministry. This is double the number of trips taken last year, and 70% of the number of trips taken in 2019 before the pandemic emerged in Wuhan.

Many people are taking precautions to avoid crowded places and to protect their elderly relatives. Chen, a 27-year-old documentary filmmaker in Beijing who plans to visit her hometown in Zhejiang province, said she will stay at home and avoid going to crowded places. She also plans to disinfect her hands before meeting her elderly relatives, including her grandmother who has so far avoided infection.

The World Health Organization (WHO) and other governments have criticized China for not being transparent about the scale and severity of the outbreak, which has led to several countries imposing restrictions on Chinese travelers. China has been reporting five or fewer deaths per day over the past month, numbers that do not match the long queues seen at funeral homes. The country did not report COVID-19 deaths data on Tuesday and Wednesday. Liang Wannian, the head of a COVID expert panel under the national health authority, said that deaths can only be accurately counted after the pandemic is over.

Despite predictions by international health experts of at least a million COVID-related deaths this year, China has reported just over 5,000 deaths since the pandemic began, which is a fraction of what other countries have reported as they lifted restrictions.

Investors are optimistic that China’s reopening will revive its $17 trillion economy, which has been experiencing its lowest growth in nearly 50 years. This has led to an increase in Asian stocks to a seven-month high, a strengthening of China’s currency against the U.S. dollar, and a boost in global oil prices on the expectation of fresh demand from the world’s top importer.

According to a Reuters poll of economists, China’s growth is expected to rebound to 4.9% in 2023. The poll also stated that GDP likely grew only 2.8% in 2022 as lockdowns hindered activity and confidence, a significant drop from the 8.4% growth in 2021.

However, travel challenges remain, as more than a dozen countries have implemented requirements for negative COVID test results from people arriving from China. Countries such as South Korea and Japan have also limited flights and require tests on arrival, with passengers testing positive being sent to quarantine.

A growing dispute between regional rivals has led to China halting the issuance of short-term visas and suspending transit visa exemptions for South Korean and Japanese nationals.

Despite China lifting travel restrictions, flight bookings from China were only 15% of pre-pandemic levels in the week following the announcement of reopening borders, according to travel data firm ForwardKeys. The industry faces challenges such as low airline capacity, high airfares, new pre-flight COVID-19 testing requirements by many countries, and a backlog of passport and visa applications as it looks to recover.

Hong Kong Airlines stated on Thursday that it does not expect to return to capacity until mid-2024.

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